Date: November 2005.
Duration: 3 weeks/6 days work
PARTICIPANTS: 150 INdustrial design MA STUDENTS in groups of 5-7
FACILITATORS: Remko van Der Lugt & Max Munnecke
Place: STUDIOLAB / Technical University of Delft

The conventional scenario process advice to identify two driving factors to construct a 2x2 matrix and thereafter develop a scenario for each quadrant. However, in reality the complexity of the future possible developments can seldom be described by such a reductionistic approach.

In this workshop the aim was to challenge the traditional scenario approach and work with the future possibilities in a more open and creative manner. In particular we wanted to try out how rich visualization could enable such an approach.
>> samples of info-graphics (pdf 5.9 mb)

Process

Its extremely demanding to transform a relative open assignment about the future into an overview of tangible business opportunities in just 20 working hours, so we tailor-suited a simple process that should ensure that the students got through the most important steps and had scheme to drive them along.

The process was divide into the following elements:

• Session 01:
  2 hour lecture that introduces the students to the concept of future mapping and the specific theme they are going to investigate ("Future Workspace 2020").
• Homework A:
  Discuss key forces and events that affect the theme and envision individually a possible future scenarios.
• Session 02:
  4 hour group work where group members share scenarios and select 3 scenarios that they want to continue with. For each of the scenarios they brainstorm about new business opportunities as long as time allows.
• Homework B:
  Finish developing new business opportunities. Integrate insights about key forces, scenarios and business opportunities into one "Future Map"
• Session 03:
  2 hour session. Present Future Maps in groups and rate according to different criteria. Lesson learned in plenum.

Briefing

Due to the relative short time available, the workshop was organized so the students started from solid ground with an introduction to trends with in the theme "future workspace"

>> environmental analysis" (3 pages / pdf 0.3 mb)

Develop Scenarios

A selection of the most contrasting, meaningful, imaginative, inspiring, and/or contrasting key chains is then used for developing scenarios. Van der Duin (2001) uses the following working definition: “A scenario is a set of systematically developed and internally consistent -possible but not necessarily probable- images of future situations, developments or occurrences.”

Scenarios provide concrete descriptions of possible contexts of future product use. In future mapping about three to five key chains are developed into scenarios. Of course, new scenarios can be added at a later stage when desired. Means to make these scenarios explicit are dayin-the-life stories, historical timelines, newspaper front pages, personas, rich pictures, etc.

Generate insights

The scenarios are further examined by exploring opportunities and threats for the innovation initiative at hand, and to generate product ideas that fit the scenario context. Future products will already be part of the scenario visualisations made in the previous step, so the transition to this step will be fluid. The question is posed what the innovation efforts could look like within each scenario. The aim is to generate opportunities/threats and product

Integrate into a Future Map

Scenarios, opportunities, threats, & product ideas are then added to the map of forces.
This will lead to a relational diagram uncovering relationships within and between the
various layers of elements. As a last step, a future map is created that can be
understood and used by the innovation team (see fig. 6). The relational diagram will
surely be too complicated, fuzzy and sketchy to make any sense for people not
involved in creating it. Using metaphors can help make it possible to comprehend the
complexity of the map, without loosing the richness of information.

This suggests various interrelated layers of information that give quick overview, as well as meat to dig into. In addition, we propose the following guidelines for making a future map:

• Create overview:
  A future map may be used for a longer period of time, over the course of an innovation project, or even provide guidance to a company for a longer period of time. Therefore a future map needs to be comprehensive and include a high level of detail while staying away from chaos.
• Provide insight:
  A future map is self-explanatory. It can be used as a tool within an innovation effort without the makers of the tool being present to explain the meaning of the items on the map.
• Show relationships:
  A future map emphasizes the relationships between the elements: Both relationships within layers, e.g. how scenarios relate, and between layers, e.g. how ideas fit within different scenarios. A good future map is well-integrated: elements generated within one scenario track are related to other forces and scenarios. A new constellation is formed that provides insight in the interplay between forces, scenarios, opportunities & threats.

Lesson learned

In general, we found that students were successful in producing inspiring and personalised future maps. The final display of future maps was incredible diverse and gave a first insight to the potential of making future maps.

The strategy to work with an unframed assignment and open field of possible scenarios, did not posses any particular difficulty to the students. For them its silimar to developing new product concepts and their only desire was to do the preliminary investigations themselves, so they would better prepared to understand the nature of relations between different elements and make a more educated selection of metaphors for the final future map.

Next

The students future maps, and in particular the use of metaphors, will in the following months be analysed, so that new insights can be collected and entered in next years workshop.